No More Mountains of Dirt: Suncor Goes In Situ

Suncor plans to source 60% of bitumen from in situ SAGD operations by 2040, ending the open-pit era's dominance

1 Apr 2026

Canada's oil sands are getting a makeover, and it starts underground. Suncor, the country's largest oil sands producer, used its March 31 investor day to announce a fundamental shift in how it pulls bitumen from Alberta's ground.

The numbers tell the story plainly. Today, 70 percent of Suncor's output comes from open-pit mining. By 2040, the company wants 60% of production flowing from in situ operations, specifically the steam-injection method known as SAGD, which heats bitumen underground until it flows to the surface without ever breaking ground above it.

The case for the switch is financial as much as technical. CEO Rich Kruger put it directly: in situ generates twice the cash flow per barrel compared to mining. Suncor's Firebag facility, already producing around 245,000 barrels per day and widely regarded as the company's most profitable asset, will anchor the expansion. A regulatory filing has been submitted to nearly double Firebag's permitted capacity to 700,000 barrels per day. A new project called Lewis, targeting 160,000 barrels per day, extends the runway further.

The company also disclosed it has added 11 billion barrels to its contingent resource base, bringing the total to 30 billion barrels. That is a formidable inventory waiting on technology, not exploration, to unlock it.

SAGD's appeal goes beyond the balance sheet. Open-pit mining leaves a visible, sprawling scar on the landscape. In situ operations occupy a fraction of the surface footprint, and they integrate more naturally with the digital tools reshaping the industry: AI-assisted production management, real-time well monitoring, and sensor analytics that are fast becoming standard across Alberta.

Suncor's pivot is not happening in isolation. It reflects a broader rethinking of how Canada's oil sands compete in a world that increasingly rewards efficiency and precision over sheer scale. For suppliers, technology providers, and operators watching Alberta's trajectory, the signal is hard to miss. The open pit dominated the industry's first chapter. SAGD is writing the next one.