Trans Mountain Runs Full, and Canada Wants More

Middle East disruptions sent Asian refiners scrambling for Canadian crude, pushing Trans Mountain to record highs ahead of schedule

30 Apr 2026

Canada's Trans Mountain pipeline reached its highest utilization since the completion of a major expansion, driven by a surge in Asian demand for heavy crude following supply disruptions tied to conflict in the Middle East. The 890,000 barrel-per-day system ran in the high-90s in April 2026, a milestone the company had not expected to reach until 2027 or 2028.

Trans Mountain chief executive Mark Maki disclosed the figure at the CERAWeek conference in Houston in late March, attributing the shift to restrictions on flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which analysts estimate carries roughly 20 percent of global oil trade. With that route constrained, refiners in China and across the Asia-Pacific region turned to Canadian heavy crude as an alternative, accelerating a commercial reorientation that had already begun since the expanded line came online in May 2024. As recently as the summer of 2025, the system was operating at approximately 84 percent of capacity.

Canada's oil sands have proved well-positioned to absorb the demand. Producers are on track to surpass the 2025 output record of 5.3 million barrels per day this year, supported by operating costs that company statements have described as among the lowest in global oil production. That combination of rising supply, competitive economics, and a pipeline running at practical capacity has intensified pressure to expand export infrastructure ahead of earlier schedules.

Trans Mountain is moving on two fronts. A drag-reducing agents project, valued at roughly $9 million, is set to begin in August 2026 and is expected to lift throughput by as much as 10 percent upon completion in January 2027. A separate pump station construction program has been pulled forward from 2029 to 2028, with equipment ordering already underway. Together, officials said, the initiatives could add up to 300,000 barrels per day of additional capacity.

Yet longer-term constraints loom. Pipeline egress is expected to approach structural limits as oil sands production continues to grow through the late 2020s, and a proposed new corridor capable of moving one million barrels per day to British Columbia's northwest coast has yet to attract private sector commitment. The results of the current capacity push could shape both investment decisions and energy policy in the years ahead.